European competitions - preview, Feb 21-23

Reviewing last week’s numbers:

Lasts week’s prediction hit the bull’s eye for three games and came close for two more games. The Milan-Tottenham game was the only upset, with absence of two of their key players perhaps contributing to Milan’s win.

More importantly from our point of view: the predictions were statistically again closer to truth than those from the betting offices, which of course means: a chance to win!

                              Win(Prob) Tie     Loss    Home   Away
Milan	 Tottenham	CL	0.12	0.23	0.65	1      0
PSG	 Bayern	        CL	0.14	0.41	0.45	0      1
Dortmund Chelsea	CL	0.62	0.27	0.12	1      0
Barça	 Man United	EL	0.28	0.27	0.45	2      2
Juventus Nantes	        EL	0.60	0.36	0.04	1      1
Leverk.  Monaco	        EL	0.16	0.41	0.43	2      3

In total, for all 28 inter-European games of this season the prediction algorithm was 1.5 percentage points closer to reality than the bwin odds one day before each game. That does not sound much¹. But if you choose the bets clever, e.g. selecting those with bigger differences in the predictions, there is plenty of chance to win systematically.

Preview:

As of today we will make freely available predictions for two games per week but provide the other predictions only for paying subscribers.

Feb. 21, Tuesday:

Frankfurt  Napoli      CL  2.34  3.55  3.43
Liverpool  Real Madrid CL  2.19  3.39  4.03

Real Madrid may have doubts about availability of Benzema and Kroos due to injury.